Championship Weekend is here, and lacrosse fans are in for a treat. The semifinals feature four battle-tested teams with contrasting styles and elite talent. Using a mix of advanced metrics and Vegas odds, let’s break down each matchup and project the winners heading into Memorial Day.
📍12:00 PM ET — Penn State (+2.5, +185) vs. Cornell (–2.5, –245)
Total: 26 (O/U –115 both sides)
📈 Prediction: Cornell 13, Penn State 9
🧠 Lean: Cornell –2.5, Under 26
Advanced Matchup Breakdown
| Stat | Cornell | Penn State |
| Offensive Efficiency | 38.7% (1st) | 31.9% (18th) |
| Defensive Efficiency | 29.6% (46th) | 27.4% (28th) |
| Shooting % | 36.7% (1st) | 29.7% (27th) |
| Turnover Rate | 26.4% (47th) | 21.6% (12th) |
| Time of Possession Rank | 55th | 9th |
| Lax-ELO | 7th | 12th |
What to Watch:
Cornell boasts the most efficient offense in the country, with an absurd 36.7% shooting clip. They’ll face a Penn State squad that’s stingy defensively and loves to slow the tempo. Expect a possession battle — but unless Penn State finds a way to control faceoffs and grind the clock, Cornell’s firepower will eventually break through. Their scoring depth and shot selection should prove too much.
📍2:30 PM ET — Syracuse (+1.5, +124) vs. Maryland (–1.5, –160)
Total: 22 (O/U: –110/+120)
📈 Prediction: Maryland 12, Syracuse 10
🧠 Lean: Maryland –1.5, Over 22
Advanced Matchup Breakdown
| Stat | Maryland | Syracuse |
| Offensive Efficiency | 30.3% (24th) | 34.2% (6th) |
| Defensive Efficiency | 24.6% (12th) | 28.3% (39th) |
| Shooting % | 29.9% (26th) | 32.4% (13th) |
| Turnover Rate | 22.4% (17th) | 27.1% (51st) |
| Time of Possession Rank | 4th | 24th |
| Lax-ELO | 6th | 11th |
What to Watch:
This is a grit vs. flash matchup. Syracuse’s young attack unit has been electric all season — but Maryland’s elite defense and methodical possession control are built for tournament lacrosse. Expect the Terps to dictate tempo, use long possessions, and wear down the Orange over four quarters. If this becomes a high-possession, mistake-prone game, Maryland’s discipline gives them the edge.
🏆 Projected Final: Cornell vs. Maryland
Two elite programs on a collision course. The analytics say it. The betting markets hint at it. Expect a war in Boston — and don’t be surprised if Maryland’s experience meets Cornell’s offensive explosiveness for a Monday showdown.
