The MAAC lacrosse season is in full swing, and Wednesday’s slate is packed with crucial matchups that could shake up the standings. With four games on tap, teams will look to gain an edge in the race for postseason positioning. Here’s a breakdown of what to expect on March 26.
12:00 PM – Iona (0-2 MAAC) vs. Sacred Heart (2-1 MAAC)
Sacred Heart, last year’s MAAC champion, has started strong but can’t afford to stumble against an Iona squad still searching for its first conference win. The Gaels have struggled this season (1-8 overall), but a home upset could turn their season around.
This is a clear mismatch on paper, as Sacred Heart ranks among the best in the MAAC while Iona sits at the bottom of most key metrics.
Key Advantages for Sacred Heart
- Elite Defense: Sacred Heart’s 22.0% defensive efficiency (5th nationally) is a huge advantage against an Iona offense that is one of the least efficient in the country (21.1%, 73rd).
- Fast, Efficient Offense: Sacred Heart plays at a top-5 pace (32.3s per possession) while still maintaining solid efficiency (28.8%, 40th) and shooting percentage (27.9%, 47th). In contrast, Iona’s offense is near the bottom in efficiency, shooting, and turnovers.
- Possession Control: Sacred Heart is far better at ball security (28.2% turnover rate, 18th) compared to Iona’s 39.4% turnover rate (71st). This suggests Iona will struggle to sustain possessions.
- Overall Strength: Sacred Heart’s Lax-ELO (1558, 34th) and Strength-of-Record (-0.78, 25th) show they’ve played well against decent competition. Iona, with a Lax-ELO of 1308 (64th) and Strength-of-Record at -6.49 (75th), has struggled heavily.
Prediction:
Sacred Heart 14, Iona 5
This should be a dominant Sacred Heart win. Their defense should overwhelm Iona’s inefficient offense, and their fast-paced attack should create plenty of scoring opportunities. Iona’s high turnover rate will likely lead to extra possessions for Sacred Heart, further tilting the game in the Pioneers’ favor.
Unless Iona plays a near-perfect game and Sacred Heart has an off-day, this one shouldn’t be close.
3:00 PM – Marist (2-1 MAAC) vs. Canisius (3-0 MAAC)
Canisius is surprisingly atop the MAAC standings at 3-0 despite a rough non-conference record (3-7). Marist, at 2-1 in the MAAC, could shake things up with a win. The Golden Griffins will look to maintain their conference dominance, while the Red Foxes try to knock them off their perch.
Key Advantages for Marist
- Better Offensive Efficiency: Marist scores on 26.9% of possessions (52nd nationally), while Canisius is at 23.6% (66th). Marist is simply more reliable offensively.
- Ball Security Matters: Marist’s 30.1% turnover rate (27th nationally) is significantly better than Canisius’ 36.1% turnover rate (60th), meaning the Red Foxes take care of the ball better.
- Higher Team Strength: Marist’s Lax-ELO (1505, 41st) is far superior to Canisius’ 1218 (67th), a sign that Marist has performed at a much higher level overall.
- More Battle-Tested: Marist’s Strength-of-Record (-3.09, 48th) is far better than Canisius’ -5.52 (70th), meaning Marist has played a tougher schedule and performed better against quality opponents.
Key Factors for Canisius
- Defense is Slightly Stronger: Canisius allows goals on 30.9% of possessions (56th), which is slightly better than Marist’s 32.2% (62nd).
- Better Time of Possession: Canisius controls the ball 51.9% of the game (22nd nationally), which means they limit opponent opportunities. If they slow the game down and make it a grind, they have a chance to keep things close.
- Shooting Efficiency is Decent: Canisius actually has a slightly higher shooting percentage (27.1%, 51st) compared to Marist (24.2%, 62nd), meaning they convert more of their shots. However, their overall offensive efficiency is still lower due to fewer quality opportunities.
Prediction:
Marist 11, Canisius 8
While Canisius is 3-0 in MAAC play, their overall metrics suggest that Marist is the better team. Marist has a more efficient offense, turns the ball over less, and has a stronger overall profile.
Canisius will try to slow the game down and win the possession battle, but unless Marist has a poor shooting day, the Red Foxes should take control and hand Canisius their first MAAC loss.
4:00 PM – Manhattan (2-0 MAAC) vs. Quinnipiac (2-1 MAAC)
Both teams enter this matchup with winning conference records, making this a critical battle for positioning. Manhattan boasts a strong defense and will try to slow down Quinnipiac’s attack. A win for the Jaspers would keep them undefeated in the MAAC, while the Bobcats aim to stay near the top of the standings.
Key Factors for Manhattan:
- Elite Defense (16th nationally) will likely shut down Quinnipiac’s already inconsistent offense.
- Shooting Efficiency (39th) gives Manhattan the ability to capitalize on Quinnipiac’s weak defense.
- Ball Security (34th) means Manhattan will limit their own mistakes and control possession better than Quinnipiac.
Key Factors for Quinnipiac:
- Good Shooting (37th) could keep them competitive, but it won’t be enough to overcome their defensive struggles and turnover issues.
- The fast-paced tempo (30th) could work in their favor, but they need to convert more efficiently and avoid turnovers to stay in the game.
Prediction:
Manhattan 12, Quinnipiac 7
Manhattan’s elite defense and solid offensive efficiency should be enough to neutralize Quinnipiac’s offense. Quinnipiac’s high turnover rate and poor defense make it tough to expect an upset here. Expect Manhattan to control the game with possession and defensive pressure.
4:00 PM – Merrimack (0-3 MAAC) vs. Siena (1-1 MAAC)
Merrimack is still looking for its first MAAC win, and a road victory against Siena would provide a much-needed confidence boost. Meanwhile, Siena is trying to stay in the mix and avoid dropping to .500 in league play. Expect a battle as both teams fight to climb the standings.
With Canisius leading the pack and several teams still in striking distance, Wednesday’s action will go a long way in shaping the MAAC tournament race. Who will come out on top? Stay tuned.
Game Prediction: Merrimack vs. Siena
Key Factors for Siena:
- Solid Offensive and Defensive Efficiency (34th & 43rd) should give them an advantage over Merrimack’s weaker units.
- Time of Possession (18th) will allow them to control the game and limit Merrimack’s chances.
Key Factors for Merrimack:
- Struggling offense and high turnover rate are significant weaknesses that will make it hard for them to compete.
Prediction:
Siena 13, Merrimack 6
Siena’s offensive efficiency, defensive control, and time of possession should make this a comfortable win for them. Merrimack’s high turnover rate and weak offensive execution make it difficult to see them being competitive in this one.
