Four epic matchups. Eight elite teams. The NCAA Men’s Lacrosse quarterfinals are here, and based on efficiency numbers, pace metrics, and Lax-ELO strength, here’s how each game could unfold.
Saturday, May 17 – Hofstra (Hempstead, NY)
🔴 Cornell vs. Richmond – 12:00 PM (ESPNU)
Analytics Breakdown:
- Cornell: #1 offensive efficiency (39.1%), #1 shooting pct (37.5%), #2 Lax-ELO, but weak defense (29.1%, 41st).
- Richmond: Top 5 in offensive and defensive efficiency, #4 defense, #5 turnover rate, and #9 ELO.
Despite Cornell’s elite offense, Richmond is no fluke. This is a high-quality, disciplined team. Cornell’s defense could allow this to be closer than expected.
Prediction: Cornell 13, Richmond 11
Key Stat: Watch Kirst vs. Richmond goalie play — game hinges on efficiency vs. saves.
🟠 Princeton vs. Syracuse – 2:30 PM (ESPNU)
Analytics Breakdown:
- Princeton: 4th in offensive efficiency, 1st in turnover rate, but poor defense (27.5%, 29th).
- Syracuse: 7th offensive efficiency, 36th defense, #5 ELO, and very fast pace (35.3s).
This should be the fastest-paced and highest-scoring game. Both defenses struggle, so expect fireworks.
Prediction: Syracuse 16, Princeton 14
Key Stat: Faceoffs and turnover margin will dictate who wins the 4th quarter.
Sunday, May 18 – Navy-Marine Corps Stadium (Annapolis, MD)
🔵 Penn State vs. Notre Dame – 12:00 PM (ESPNU)
Analytics Breakdown:
- Notre Dame: Elite on both ends, #1 Lax-ELO, top 6 in offensive efficiency, shooting, and turnover rate.
- Penn State: Balanced but middling defense, low time of possession, 33rd in shooting %.
Notre Dame’s efficiency and poise give them the edge — expect a methodical Irish performance.
Prediction: Notre Dame 12, Penn State 9
Key Stat: Notre Dame’s defense should dominate in settled 6v6.
🔴 Maryland vs. Georgetown – 2:30 PM (ESPNU)
Analytics Breakdown:
- Maryland: 2nd best defense (23.1%), slowest pace (45.0s), top 3 ELO, great possession game.
- Georgetown: Solid all-around team, but less efficient (26.4% defense, 14th) and lower SOR (-0.22).
This has the feel of a grind-it-out war. Maryland’s possession and defense tilt it their way in a low-scoring affair.
Prediction: Maryland 10, Georgetown 8
Key Stat: Time of possession — Terps lead the nation in controlling tempo.
